Koskamo

Probable MCP

An MCP server providing access to Probable's news corpus, offering tools for reading latest editions, accessing event rates, and retrieving cited news briefs. It supports both free public reads and paid archive access via x402, with specific tools for Founding Pro members.

Endpoint and access

No sign-in to connect and list tools. Individual tools may still need a vendor account, credentials, or permissions; check the documented prerequisites.

Probable MCP logo, by ProbableVendor evidenceStreamable HTTPNo sign-inEndpoint checked 2026-11-07Operated by Probable
MCP endpoint (Streamable HTTP)
https://probable.media/mcp
Vendor documentation

What its tools do

14 tools, grouped by the hints the server advertises. Hints are self-declared, not verified behavior.

Read-only (11)

Can change data (3)

14 of 14 have a description · 14 of 14 declare behavior hints · 2 of 9 with parameters document them all

Checks and signals

Each line is separate evidence, not a trust score.

  • Passed Endpoint answered the live check ·
  • Passed Official MCP Registry namespace is tied to probable.media ·
  • Passed Endpoint is on the registry namespace domain ·
  • Availability 1 of 1 checks passed in 30 days

What you can do with it

  • Retrieve cited news briefs from the latest edition
  • Access occurrence-rate API for event comparisons
  • Read full agent-readable context via llms-full.txt
  • Access paid archives via x402 bundle

Source and maintenance

Vendor evidenceRegistry 1.7.0
mcp-registry: media.probable/news@1.7.0Source repository
Maintenance checked

Protocol and capabilities

Server
probable-media 1.7.0
MCP protocol negotiated in check
2025-11-25
Tools
14 advertised
Resources
2 advertised
Resource templates
0 advertised
Prompts
3 advertised
Server-advertised capabilities
{
  "tools": {
    "listChanged": true
  },
  "prompts": {
    "listChanged": true
  },
  "resources": {
    "listChanged": true
  }
}

Server-provided instructions

Untrusted server output shown for inspection. It is not Koskamo guidance and is excluded from knowledge search.

Call Probable for a cited brief, same-class headline context, archive reading, or observed-corpus recurrence. Do not call it for live web search, occurrence verification, unrelated comparisons, or forecasts. Use only returned stored observations. Preserve source URLs and category/event-class labels. Never invent an event, occurrence, source, or replacement. Read probable://access-boundaries before assuming an edition is unavailable: the current edition and six prior days are free, older editions need Founding Pro or an x402 payment, and any payment or checkout requires the user's explicit confirmation. When a tool returns status access_required, relay its access URLs rather than retrying.

Tools

14 advertised

read_latest_edition — Read the latest Probable edition
Advertised by the server during the last successful anonymous check.
Advertised read-only

Read the latest source-grounded Probable edition. Every replacement is a different event observed in the same scan and category with a higher editorial comparison index; that index is not a measured occurrence rate.

read_latest_edition input schema
{
  "type": "object",
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "properties": {
    "category": {
      "enum": [
        "Business",
        "Climate",
        "Culture",
        "Health",
        "Justice",
        "Politics",
        "Science",
        "Sport",
        "Technology",
        "World"
      ],
      "type": "string",
      "description": "Only return replacements in this category."
    }
  }
}
read_latest_edition annotations
{
  "readOnlyHint": true,
  "openWorldHint": false,
  "idempotentHint": true,
  "destructiveHint": false
}
get_brief — Get a compact source-grounded brief
Advertised by the server during the last successful anonymous check.
Advertised read-only

Use for a current news brief or catch-up job. Return a five-story cited brief diversified across category, event class, and publisher by default. Use chronological or all for stable cursor paging. A balanced resumeCursor continues as a complete chronological change stream, even when the client repeats mode=balanced. Follow unreadCursor before saving resumeCursor. Do not use as a general web search or for events Probable did not observe.

get_brief input schema
{
  "type": "object",
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "properties": {
    "mode": {
      "enum": [
        "balanced",
        "chronological",
        "all"
      ],
      "type": "string",
      "default": "balanced"
    },
    "limit": {
      "type": "integer",
      "default": 5,
      "maximum": 25,
      "minimum": 1
    },
    "since": {
      "type": "string",
      "format": "date-time",
      "pattern": "^(?:(?:\\d\\d[2468][048]|\\d\\d[13579][26]|\\d\\d0[48]|[02468][048]00|[13579][26]00)-02-29|\\d{4}-(?:(?:0[13578]|1[02])-(?:0[1-9]|[12]\\d|3[01])|(?:0[469]|11)-(?:0[1-9]|[12]\\d|30)|(?:02)-(?:0[1-9]|1\\d|2[0-8])))T(?:(?:[01]\\d|2[0-3]):[0-5]\\d:[0-5]\\d(?:\\.\\d+)?(?:Z|([+-](?:[01]\\d|2[0-3]):[0-5]\\d)))$"
    },
    "topic": {
      "type": "string",
      "maxLength": 160,
      "minLength": 1
    },
    "cursor": {
      "type": "string",
      "maxLength": 512,
      "minLength": 1
    },
    "category": {
      "enum": [
        "Business",
        "Climate",
        "Culture",
        "Health",
        "Justice",
        "Politics",
        "Science",
        "Sport",
        "Technology",
        "World"
      ],
      "type": "string",
      "description": "Only return replacements in this category."
    }
  }
}
get_brief annotations
{
  "readOnlyHint": true,
  "openWorldHint": false,
  "idempotentHint": true,
  "destructiveHint": false
}
get_context — Put a headline or known source URL in context
Advertised by the server during the last successful anonymous check.
Advertised read-only

Use when a user supplies a headline or a source URL already observed by Probable and wants same-class context. Optional referenceContext adds explicit country, magnitude, industry or aviation scope for primary-source population references; missingFields and conflicts explain withheld matches. Unknown URLs are not fetched and instead request a headline. Do not use this to verify occurrence, compare unrelated event classes, or forecast.

get_context input schema
{
  "type": "object",
  "anyOf": [
    {
      "type": "object",
      "required": [
        "headline"
      ],
      "properties": {
        "headline": {
          "type": "string",
          "maxLength": 500,
          "minLength": 8
        },
        "referenceContext": {
          "type": "object",
          "properties": {
            "industry": {
              "enum": [
                "51",
                "00",
                "31-33",
                "44-45"
              ],
              "type": "string"
            },
            "magnitude": {
              "type": "number",
              "maximum": 10,
              "minimum": 0
            },
            "countryCode": {
              "type": "string",
              "pattern": "^[A-Z]{3}$"
            },
            "aviationScope": {
              "type": "string",
              "const": "us_scheduled_part121"
            }
          },
          "additionalProperties": false
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "object",
      "required": [
        "url"
      ],
      "properties": {
        "url": {
          "type": "string",
          "format": "uri",
          "maxLength": 2048
        },
        "referenceContext": {
          "type": "object",
          "properties": {
            "industry": {
              "enum": [
                "51",
                "00",
                "31-33",
                "44-45"
              ],
              "type": "string"
            },
            "magnitude": {
              "type": "number",
              "maximum": 10,
              "minimum": 0
            },
            "countryCode": {
              "type": "string",
              "pattern": "^[A-Z]{3}$"
            },
            "aviationScope": {
              "type": "string",
              "const": "us_scheduled_part121"
            }
          },
          "additionalProperties": false
        }
      }
    }
  ],
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema"
}
get_context annotations
{
  "readOnlyHint": true,
  "openWorldHint": false,
  "idempotentHint": true,
  "destructiveHint": false
}
list_editions — List Probable editions and access terms
Advertised by the server during the last successful anonymous check.
Advertised read-only

List every stored edition with public metadata, free/paid status, exact prices, and the URLs that can unlock paid content.

list_editions input schema
{
  "type": "object",
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "properties": {}
}
list_editions annotations
{
  "readOnlyHint": true,
  "openWorldHint": false,
  "idempotentHint": true,
  "destructiveHint": false
}
read_edition_by_date — Read a public Probable edition by date
Advertised by the server during the last successful anonymous check.
Advertised read-only

Read a stored edition inside the seven-day public window. Older editions return an access boundary and links; this tool never bypasses membership or payment.

read_edition_by_date input schema
{
  "type": "object",
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "required": [
    "date"
  ],
  "properties": {
    "date": {
      "type": "string",
      "pattern": "^\\d{4}-\\d{2}-\\d{2}$",
      "description": "America/Los_Angeles edition date in YYYY-MM-DD format."
    },
    "category": {
      "enum": [
        "Business",
        "Climate",
        "Culture",
        "Health",
        "Justice",
        "Politics",
        "Science",
        "Sport",
        "Technology",
        "World"
      ],
      "type": "string",
      "description": "Only return replacements in this category."
    }
  }
}
read_edition_by_date annotations
{
  "readOnlyHint": true,
  "openWorldHint": false,
  "idempotentHint": true,
  "destructiveHint": false
}
export_edition — Export a Founding Pro edition
Advertised by the server during the last successful anonymous check.
Advertised read-only

Export an edition as source-grounded Markdown or CSV. Requires member authorization with exports:read and an active Founding Pro entitlement.

export_edition input schema
{
  "type": "object",
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "properties": {
    "date": {
      "type": "string",
      "pattern": "^\\d{4}-\\d{2}-\\d{2}$"
    },
    "format": {
      "enum": [
        "markdown",
        "csv"
      ],
      "type": "string"
    },
    "category": {
      "enum": [
        "Business",
        "Climate",
        "Culture",
        "Health",
        "Justice",
        "Politics",
        "Science",
        "Sport",
        "Technology",
        "World"
      ],
      "type": "string",
      "description": "Only return replacements in this category."
    }
  }
}
export_edition annotations
{
  "readOnlyHint": true,
  "openWorldHint": false,
  "idempotentHint": true,
  "destructiveHint": false
}
list_watches — List Founding Pro saved watches
Advertised by the server during the last successful anonymous check.
Advertised read-only

List the member's saved monitors and recent matches. Requires member authorization with watches:read and an active Founding Pro entitlement.

list_watches input schema
{
  "type": "object",
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "properties": {}
}
list_watches annotations
{
  "readOnlyHint": true,
  "openWorldHint": false,
  "idempotentHint": true,
  "destructiveHint": false
}
create_watch — Create a saved watch
Advertised by the server during the last successful anonymous check.

Create a Founding Pro saved watch. Requires watches:write; repeat the same Idempotency-Key to safely replay the same request.

create_watch input schema
{
  "type": "object",
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "required": [
    "name",
    "mode",
    "idempotencyKey"
  ],
  "properties": {
    "mode": {
      "enum": [
        "probable",
        "rare",
        "overweighted"
      ],
      "type": "string"
    },
    "name": {
      "type": "string",
      "maxLength": 80,
      "minLength": 1
    },
    "active": {
      "type": "boolean"
    },
    "category": {
      "enum": [
        "Business",
        "Climate",
        "Culture",
        "Health",
        "Justice",
        "Politics",
        "Science",
        "Sport",
        "Technology",
        "World"
      ],
      "type": "string",
      "description": "Only return replacements in this category."
    },
    "threshold": {
      "type": "number",
      "minimum": 0
    },
    "eventClass": {
      "type": "string",
      "maxLength": 120,
      "minLength": 1
    },
    "idempotencyKey": {
      "type": "string",
      "pattern": "^[A-Za-z0-9._:-]{8,128}$"
    }
  }
}
create_watch annotations
{
  "readOnlyHint": false,
  "openWorldHint": false,
  "idempotentHint": true,
  "destructiveHint": false
}
update_watch — Update a saved watch
Advertised by the server during the last successful anonymous check.

Update fields on one owned Founding Pro watch. Requires watches:write and an Idempotency-Key.

update_watch input schema
{
  "type": "object",
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "required": [
    "watchId",
    "idempotencyKey"
  ],
  "properties": {
    "mode": {
      "enum": [
        "probable",
        "rare",
        "overweighted"
      ],
      "type": "string"
    },
    "name": {
      "type": "string",
      "maxLength": 80,
      "minLength": 1
    },
    "active": {
      "type": "boolean"
    },
    "watchId": {
      "type": "string",
      "format": "uuid",
      "pattern": "^([0-9a-fA-F]{8}-[0-9a-fA-F]{4}-[1-8][0-9a-fA-F]{3}-[89abAB][0-9a-fA-F]{3}-[0-9a-fA-F]{12}|00000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000000|ffffffff-ffff-ffff-ffff-ffffffffffff)$"
    },
    "category": {
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "enum": [
            "Business",
            "Climate",
            "Culture",
            "Health",
            "Justice",
            "Politics",
            "Science",
            "Sport",
            "Technology",
            "World"
          ],
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "type": "null"
        }
      ]
    },
    "threshold": {
      "type": "number",
      "minimum": 0
    },
    "eventClass": {
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "string",
          "maxLength": 120,
          "minLength": 1
        },
        {
          "type": "null"
        }
      ]
    },
    "idempotencyKey": {
      "type": "string",
      "pattern": "^[A-Za-z0-9._:-]{8,128}$"
    }
  }
}
update_watch annotations
{
  "readOnlyHint": false,
  "openWorldHint": false,
  "idempotentHint": true,
  "destructiveHint": false
}
acknowledge_watch — Acknowledge saved-watch matches
Advertised by the server during the last successful anonymous check.

Mark all currently unread matches on one owned watch as read. Requires watches:write and an Idempotency-Key.

acknowledge_watch input schema
{
  "type": "object",
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "required": [
    "watchId",
    "idempotencyKey"
  ],
  "properties": {
    "watchId": {
      "type": "string",
      "format": "uuid",
      "pattern": "^([0-9a-fA-F]{8}-[0-9a-fA-F]{4}-[1-8][0-9a-fA-F]{3}-[89abAB][0-9a-fA-F]{3}-[0-9a-fA-F]{12}|00000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000000|ffffffff-ffff-ffff-ffff-ffffffffffff)$"
    },
    "idempotencyKey": {
      "type": "string",
      "pattern": "^[A-Za-z0-9._:-]{8,128}$"
    }
  }
}
acknowledge_watch annotations
{
  "readOnlyHint": false,
  "openWorldHint": false,
  "idempotentHint": true,
  "destructiveHint": false
}
discover_events — Discover probable, rare, or overweighted events
Advertised by the server during the last successful anonymous check.
Advertised read-only

Use to rank cited events in the latest completed edition by probable, rare, or overweighted mode. Keep research priors separate from measured current-edition counts. Do not describe the result as a forecast or a probability that an event occurred.

discover_events input schema
{
  "type": "object",
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "required": [
    "mode"
  ],
  "properties": {
    "mode": {
      "enum": [
        "probable",
        "rare",
        "overweighted"
      ],
      "type": "string"
    },
    "limit": {
      "type": "integer",
      "maximum": 50,
      "minimum": 1
    },
    "category": {
      "enum": [
        "Business",
        "Climate",
        "Culture",
        "Health",
        "Justice",
        "Politics",
        "Science",
        "Sport",
        "Technology",
        "World"
      ],
      "type": "string",
      "description": "Only return replacements in this category."
    }
  }
}
discover_events annotations
{
  "readOnlyHint": true,
  "openWorldHint": false,
  "idempotentHint": true,
  "destructiveHint": false
}
score_headline — Score a headline against Probable's observed base rates
Advertised by the server during the last successful anonymous check.
Advertised read-only

Classify one supplied headline and inspect coverage recurrence. Optional referenceContext adds explicit country, magnitude, industry or aviation scope. When sufficiently scoped, occurrenceReference separately supplies primary-source counts, exposure or published population rates with units and source periods. Missing fields, conflicts and hypothetical/disputed/historical wording are disclosed; news mentions never update source rates. Do not verify a headline, compare incompatible units, predict an outcome, or score a URL.

score_headline input schema
{
  "type": "object",
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "required": [
    "title"
  ],
  "properties": {
    "title": {
      "type": "string",
      "maxLength": 500,
      "minLength": 8
    },
    "referenceContext": {
      "type": "object",
      "properties": {
        "industry": {
          "enum": [
            "51",
            "00",
            "31-33",
            "44-45"
          ],
          "type": "string"
        },
        "magnitude": {
          "type": "number",
          "maximum": 10,
          "minimum": 0
        },
        "countryCode": {
          "type": "string",
          "pattern": "^[A-Z]{3}$"
        },
        "aviationScope": {
          "type": "string",
          "const": "us_scheduled_part121"
        }
      },
      "additionalProperties": false
    }
  }
}
score_headline annotations
{
  "readOnlyHint": true,
  "openWorldHint": false,
  "idempotentHint": true,
  "destructiveHint": false
}
list_classes — List Probable taxonomy classes
Advertised by the server during the last successful anonymous check.
Advertised read-only

Return the versioned category and event-class catalog used by score_headline. The editorial index is a legacy comparison weight, not an empirical probability.

list_classes input schema
{
  "type": "object",
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "properties": {}
}
list_classes annotations
{
  "readOnlyHint": true,
  "openWorldHint": false,
  "idempotentHint": true,
  "destructiveHint": false
}
get_membership — Get Probable membership terms
Advertised by the server during the last successful anonymous check.
Advertised read-only

Return Free and Founding Pro terms and available Stripe-hosted checkout URLs. Calling this tool does not open checkout or claim payment success.

get_membership input schema
{
  "type": "object",
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "properties": {}
}
get_membership annotations
{
  "readOnlyHint": true,
  "openWorldHint": false,
  "idempotentHint": true,
  "destructiveHint": false
}

Prompts

3 advertised

health-observations-today — Review today's observed Health coverage

Advertised by the server during the last successful anonymous check.

Read the latest source-grounded Health replacements.

No arguments advertised.

score-headline-base-rates — Score a headline against observed base rates

Advertised by the server during the last successful anonymous check.

Classify a supplied headline and explain its observed recurrence.

No arguments advertised.

rare-events-this-week — Find rare events in the latest edition

Advertised by the server during the last successful anonymous check.

Rank cited events by observed rarity.

No arguments advertised.

Resources

2 advertised

access-boundaries — Probable access boundaries

Advertised by the server during the last successful anonymous check.

access-boundaries URI
probable://access-boundaries

MIME type: application/json

server-card — Probable MCP server card

Advertised by the server during the last successful anonymous check.

server-card URI
mcp://server-card.json

MIME type: application/json

90-day uptime

A lightweight connection check about every six hours, sampled on hosts with many listings. It shows the server answered, not that its tools work.

Too few checks for a percentage yet (2 of 2 answered).

  1. 2026-11-07: 1 of 1 checks answered
  2. 2026-11-09: 1 of 1 checks answered

30-day availability

Aggregated from read-only remote checks; this is not a tool-execution or security guarantee.

Successful checks
1 of 1 (100%)
Average latency
1401 ms
95th percentile latency
1401 ms

Maintenance history

Public check and source-refresh events. Editorial and ownership records remain private.

  • · probe · passed · 1401 ms · metadata changed · 14 tool(s), 2 resource(s), 0 resource template(s), 3 prompt(s)

Connect from your client

Each snippet registers the same endpoint; pick the client you use.

This server is operated by the named third party. Listing and endpoint checks are not an endorsement or a security audit. Review the operator's permissions, terms, and data handling before connecting. How listings are checked and corrected.

Claude Code

Run this once in a terminal. It registers the remote server. Use --scope project to write .mcp.json for the repo.
Claude Code configuration
claude mcp add --transport http probable-mcp https://probable.media/mcp

Codex

Run this once. Codex stores MCP servers in ~/.codex/config.toml (or .codex/config.toml in a trusted project).
Codex configuration
codex mcp add probable-mcp --url https://probable.media/mcp

Cursor

Merge this server into .cursor/mcp.json in your project, then enable probable-mcp in your MCP settings.
Cursor configuration
{
  "mcpServers": {
    "probable-mcp": {
      "url": "https://probable.media/mcp"
    }
  }
}

Cline

Merge this into cline_mcp_settings.json (Cline → MCP Servers → Configure).
Cline configuration
{
  "mcpServers": {
    "probable-mcp": {
      "type": "streamableHttp",
      "url": "https://probable.media/mcp",
      "disabled": false
    }
  }
}

VS Code

Merge this server into .vscode/mcp.json. Use MCP: List Servers to start probable-mcp and inspect its tools.
VS Code configuration
{
  "servers": {
    "probable-mcp": {
      "type": "http",
      "url": "https://probable.media/mcp"
    }
  }
}

Gemini CLI

Run this once. It writes .gemini/settings.json in the current project; pass --scope user for ~/.gemini/settings.json.
Gemini CLI configuration
gemini mcp add --transport http probable-mcp https://probable.media/mcp

Claude Desktop

Open Claude Settings > Connectors > Add custom connector, enter this server URL and enable it for the conversation. This is a manual remote-connector handoff, not a desktop JSON configuration.
Claude Desktop configuration
https://probable.media/mcp

Windsurf

Merge this into ~/.codeium/windsurf/mcp_config.json, then refresh MCP in Cascade. Windsurf remote servers use serverUrl, not url.
Windsurf configuration
{
  "mcpServers": {
    "probable-mcp": {
      "serverUrl": "https://probable.media/mcp"
    }
  }
}

Let your agent find its tools

Find servers like Probable MCP from your agent. Add Koskamo once to search the index for endpoints, access requirements, and client setup. Public discovery needs no key.

Connect Koskamo Explore workflows
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Do you run Probable MCP?

Prove ownership with a DNS record, a well-known file, or your Official MCP Registry entry, and your edits publish immediately. Proofs are re-checked weekly; admins can still hide or remove a listing.

Claim this listing