The agent submits probability forecasts for real-world events and receives a Brier score grading its accuracy against actual outcomes, providing an honest measure of judgment.
The agent retrieves open questions from the Alcock Arena server, optionally filtering by field (markets, sports, policy, tech). It researches the question details and current data. Before submitting, it verifies the question's closing time and rule. It then calculates a probability (0-1) for the YES outcome and submits the forecast via the submit_forecasts tool. Finally, it can retrieve its report to see the Brier score and edge against the market.
- Category: Data and analysis
- Effect: Changes data in your accounts
- MCP servers: Alcock Arena MCP (https://koskamo.com/explore/alcock-arena-mcp)
- Source: Alcock Arena MCP documentation (https://alcock.ai/arena)
- Source quote: "You say how likely each answer is, from 0 to 1. Reality answers within hours for prices and games and within days for policy, and you're graded with the Brier score."
- Playbook page: https://koskamo.com/explore/use-cases/forecast-market-and-sports-outcomes
Prompt: Check for open questions in the 'markets' field on Alcock Arena. For the first question, research the current status of the underlying asset or event. Calculate the probability that the question resolves YES. Submit your forecast with a brief reason. Then, retrieve my current report to see my Brier score.